60 Days

There are now less than 60 days left till the election but many people are pretty much "politiced" out. The RNC was a big success but it was draining. Four consecutive nights of political star-power - the perfect length for a mini-series.

President Bush gets to step back from direct campaigning. He can call President Putin to offer his condolences and whatever assistance possible over the recent hostage situation (while at the same time reminding the people of the US what the true stakes are in our War against terror). President Bush can honor the fallen of 9/11 on the third anniversary in an official capacity (while again reminding the voters what the real stakes are here). He can visit with the troops. He can do lots of things that will remind people that Bush is a war-time President.

John Kerry, meanwhile, is now a very distinct underdog. He can play up the "people love the underdog" angle and remind people the last time he was in a corner like this was in the Iowa Primary and look what happened then. If Kerry happens to believe any of this then he is clearly delusional.

The two goals of the RNC were to paint Bush as a strong decisive war-time leader and to underscore that Kerry is indecisive at best and not the person you want to entrust the security and safety of this nation to. On both - the Republicans can say "Mission Accomplished".

Kerry is faced with a lose-lose-lose-lose situation.

Lose 1: Kerry cannot rely on his official capacity as Senator to remind people of his strengths like President Bush can. Kerry has to hit the campaign trail and airwaves to get his message out. The problem is - people are tired of politics and want a break. Trying to force feed his message will just serve as a turn-off. Even supporters will start to think "Oh not another Kerry commercial" while they are trying to watch a Seinfeld rerun.

Lose 2: Kerry has to stop the "they are questioning my patriotism" and the "Republic smear machine is out to get me" crap. This just makes Kerry seem like a paranoid whiner. One of his advisors should have pointed out that the average guy looks at the situation and thinks "If Kerry can't stand up to 260 Vietnam vets - how in the world is he going to be able to stand up to Al Qaeda?"

Lose 3: It is now too late for Kerry to come out with any big proposals. If he tries - then it will take a deluge of commercials to get the message out and that will turn off voters (see above) and people will wonder why he didn't make these proposals during his convention. At this late date - new sweeping proposals will appear as just what they are - desperate promises from a desperate campaign.

Lose 4: Oh the Kerry campaign thought they were so slick. Michael Moore's movie was damaging to the President when it came out and the DVD coming out after the deadline for 527 commercials would be just as devastating the Kerry camp believed. Funny thing. Moore is now a major liability. He is associated as one who looks for the worst in America instead of the best. He is associated with disruptive protesters. He is associated with the do as I say not as I do Hollywood elite. John McCain made Moore the central target of his RNC speech. Now Moore is a distinct liability that Kerry is saddled with. Meanwhile, Unfit for Command goes through printing after printing and the Passion of the Christ is out on DVD (the former is a direct attack on Kerry's character and the latter is a reminder both of true sacrifice and Bush's religious convictions - I'm willing to guess that most who buy the DVD will also vote for Bush).

When you add it all up - you get John Kerry is a loser come November 3rd. But then again - some of us knew this all along.