Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Evening Links



- The above is one of my favorite pictures of Manny and here is an excellent column on Manny by Charlie Pierce over at Slate.

- Lt. Michael Murphy receives the Medal of Honor
More Predictions

Here are some more predictions from yours truly.

- Manny Ramirez will hit .400 in the World Series with 2 HR and two circus catches in the outfield but every time FOX shows highlights of him it will be of Manny not running out a flyball, dropping a catch in the outfield or going into the Green Monster to take a pee.

- Next year fair catches will be reviewable in the Big East.

- Broadcast of game three of the World Series in Colorado will be interrupted to bring news of the capture of Man Bear Pig in Colorado. I'm totally cereal. It will later be announced that it wasn't actually Man Bear Pig but Red Sox slugger David Ortiz (who does kinda look like a cross between a man, a bear and a pig).
Heh Heh

I saw this live last night and hoped someone caught it on tape.

The Big Lead does not disappoint.
Dominic Randolph

Time for my weekly post decrying the injustice being done to Holy Cross QB Dominic Randolph who is now 2nd in passing yards in 1-AA football (and just 3 yards behind the leader Scott Riddle of Elon).

Randolph has 2,244 yards in 7 games (an average of 320 yards per game) yet he is still not included in the Payton Award Watch list. Why is Dominic Randolph being disrespected like this? It can't be because he's only a junior because the list includes at least 5 juniors. There are 7 QB's on the list and I'm saying that Dominic Randolph is better than half the names on the list. And I'll even name names. Randolph is better than Liam Coen of UMass, Duran Lawson of the Citadel, Eric Sanders of Northern Iowa and Jayson Foster of Georgia Southern.

Yet Dominic Randolph is not included on the list! Why?

Monday, October 22, 2007

World Series Predictions

Here are my predictions about the upcoming World Series between the Rockies and Red Sox;

- I see the Red Sox winning in 5-6 games. This is no fanboy prediction. When you look at it dispassionately you see that the Red Sox have the advantage in just about every phase of the game. The Vegas betting line has the Red Sox as a -$225 favorite (meaning you would have to risk $225 to win $100). That's a prohibitive favorite.

- Some topics will get beat to death in the media such as the chance of snow and the trade that almost sent Todd Helton to the Red Sox. Don't waste your time on any articles you see regarding either subject and make a mental note about the author of such articles. Its an indication they don't have the imagination or insight enough to come up with anything better.

- Much will be made about the Rockies historic winning streak but it is their lack of playoff experience that will be a bigger factor. People will point to Arizona beating the playoff tested Yankees as proof to refute this point but the Rockies don't have two Hall of Fame starters in their primes to ride to victory like the Diamondbacks did. The World Series will be overwhelming for a team that is made up of players who have never been to a Fall Classic and especially for a team that has lived a pretty much media blackout existence for most of the year. It will be overwhelming whether they admit it or not.

- Strikeouts will maybe be the most important stat to monitor. Some good analysis at Sports Frog on the series but one thing jumped out at me. In his reasoning Nick uses sOPS to compare pitching staffs in the macro but then uses percentages in the micro. Red Sox pitchers struck out 18.93% of hitters while Colorado hurlers struck out 15.37%. That's a pretty big advantage for the Red Sox but in actuality its even bigger because the Red Sox pitchers did that against lineups with a DH while the Rockies were able to pad their strikeout numbers against pitchers trying to hit. The bare percentages don't take league factors into account. As much as any factor - the Red Sox won the ALCS because they put the ball into play more often than the Indians (who struck out an amazing 63 times).

- Josh Fogg will either have a stellar outing in game two or he'll get shelled. There will be no middle ground. Fogg grew up in Lynn, Lynn, the city of sin (you never come out the way you went in) and I'm sure dreamed of playing in a World Series at Fenway Park. My head says he gets shelled but my gut says he goes 7 innings and gives up just 2 or 3 cheap runs.
Red Sox Going to the World Series!

Here are some observations from last night's game 7 clinching victory over the Indians.

- Going into the game I expected big things from Daisuke Matsuzaka and I'll admit that in the 3rd inning I started to think that Dice-K may just pitch a no-hitter. Dice-K is a competitor and he has "Wa" to spare (the Japanese term for team spirit).

- I still can't stand Kevin Millar.

- By the sixth inning I stopped thinking about "Wa" and started thinking about Chinese water torture because that's what the drip, drip, drip of single runs seemed like. Fans from both sides were getting anxious because it seemed like it could go either way.

- I can't stand Kevin Millar but I really can't stand Kenny Lofton. Am I alone in thinking the ump got that call at second right? Yes, Lofton's hand beat Manny's throw but his hands and his whole body skipped over the base while Pedroia's glove was touching Lofton's face. Being tagged while off the base made Lofton out. I feel bad for the Indians 3rd base coach Joel Skinner. He'll have to live with not sending Kenny Lofton home in the 7th inning but I think it was the fear of Manny's quick release and accurate throws from left that made him put up the stop sign.

- When I was in college I had a friend Pete who had a strange sense of humor. He would start saying something and just leaving you hanging. When he knew you were waiting for him to say something else - he'd chuckle. Pete would say something like, "in my hometown there's a cemetery." You'd wait for him to continue and then Pete would laugh knowing you were waiting on him. Tim McCarver is like Pete except he doesn't do it on purpose. How often does McCarver make a statement that just hangs there? "The Red Sox have scored on a double play and a sacrifice fly." And? There has to be more behind that thought right? When Pete did it - I laughed because I knew Pete was just having fun. With McCarver I cringe because he's either having the onset of dementia or he just sucks.

- Watching the game on TV - I was distracted by a guy behind the plate towards the first base side. Did you see this guy? He had a humongous forehead. I mean it was just huge. This guy could have sold billboard space above his eyebrows.

- Dustin Pedroia has all the confidence in the world. You can tell that just by seeing him flip his bat after hitting that HR in the 7th.

- If you saw the Red Sox celebrating after the game you would have seen a bunch of players smoking cigars. Those cigars came from Louie Tiant who has a cigar business.

Sunday, October 21, 2007

The AP Hates Kansas

Look at this AP article over at ESPN.com. Do you notice anything missing? There are 5 teams that are undefeated so far this season and the article mentions 4 of them.

No mention of #9 Kansas who happens to be undefeated and 7-0. Why does the AP hate Kansas?
Ronald Reagan vs. Ted Baxter

Time for another installment of the Ronald Reagan vs. Ted Baxter betting NFL football contest.

The conservative theory of NFL betting is to take a home team getting 3 or fewer points. Who is more conservative than Ronald Reagan? Note - this theory does not include games which are a "pick". The Ted Baxter theory of football betting says to take the NFL teams getting 10 or more points under the idea that both teams are professionals and how much difference could there be between two groups of professionals? Ted Baxter used this method to soundly whip Lou Grant betting football games.

Week 7 NFL Picks


Ronald Reagan - going into today the Ronald Reagan theory has been 7-4 for the season. Last week the theory went 1-0 with the Chiefs getting 3 beating the Bengals. Today, once again, there were one game each for Ronnie and Ted. The Bills were getting 3 from the Ravens and Buffalo won outright 19-14. That raises Ronnie's season mark to 8-4. The Monday Night game between Jacksonville and Indy also will qualify as the Jags are at home currently getting 3 points.


Ted Baxter - last week the Ted Baxter theory went 0-1 as the Chargers easily covered. This week the Patriots were giving 16 to the Dolphins and they also covered easily by winning 49-28. That put Ted's record at 5-8-1 for the season. Not sure about you but it's beginning to become clear that there's something to the Ron Reagan theory.
Paul Byrd - Cheater?

Wow - interesting. Paul Byrd likes his HGH.

I have to wonder if this news will effect the Indians clubhouse. Right before a game 7 probably isn't the best time for news like this to break (although I wish it could have broke last week before Byrd beat the Red Sox). If the Indians do win tonight - then theses revelations about Byrd will taint the series victory. No doubt about it.

Before reading the article I would have said that Paul Byrd was the free agent pitcher who has helped himself the most this post-season. Now you have to wonder what team will take a risk on a guy who could be either facing a 50-game suspension at any time or losing his HGH performance crutch. Today's column revealing HGH use probably costs Byrd at the very least a multi-year contract.

I think you will start to see names coming out pretty much on a weekly basis as the damn starts to burst. It is shaping up as a very interesting hot stove season.

Thanks to Greg for the pointer to the article on Byrd.
Stewart Mandel May as Well Pick the Team with the Nicest Uniforms

I don't want to hear about SI's Stewart Mandel crying about the need for a playoff system in Division 1 football. With this quote Mandel proves that he really doesn't believe in one:
With my No. 1 team from last week, USF, going down to Rutgers on Thursday, I’ll have no reservations whatsoever moving the [LSU] Tigers up to replace the Bulls this week. Whether it’s been the doings of a genius or a mad man, they’ve certainly earned it.
So Mandel wants a 1-loss team as number 1? Based on what? His gut feeling that LSU really is the best team in the country? So what people do on the field I guess doesn't matter to Mandel. LSU squeaking out a win over Auburn AT HOME makes them #1? Auburn is the same team who has lost to South Florida and Mississippi State (who was blasted by another Big East team West Virginia 38-13). Auburn is a team that may be out of the top 25 by Monday. How is that earning it? There are 4 major college football teams that are still undefeated and who have yet to have the a let-down on the field like LSU's against Kentucky (the same team that was easily handled by South Carolina). Ohio State, Boston College, Arizona State and Kansas all deserve to be ranked over 1-loss teams if the person truly is going on what a team has accomplished on the field and not on reputation.

Saturday, October 20, 2007

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

West Virginia beat Mississippi State 38-13. This is one of those game where fans of West Virgina have to be happy with the outcome but fans who put some money on the game have to be of mixed emotions. The line on the game was 25.5 points... Speaking of betting - I'd be willing to bet that David Carradine has made more money from those Yellow Book ads than he made from the original Kung Fu TV series... In the 17th century, the value of pi was known to 35 decimal places. Today, to 1.2411 trillion (except in Alabama where by law the value of pi is rounded to 3.14)... OK - now I can relax. Game 7 with the Red Sox tomorrow night...
Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.


I give all the credit in the world to Vanderbilt for its 17-6 victory over South Carolina but I also have to think that with Kentucky beating LSU - then the Gamecocks may have gone into this game a bit too cocky and maybe looking ahead of the Commodores because they had handled Kentucky pretty easily. Pride goeth before a fall... Dumbledore was gay? Richard Harris went his whole career without playing a gay character, always the man's man. Now I find nothing wrong with Rowling saying she wrote Dumbledore as a gay character but my first thought was to wonder if Harris knew this before hand if he would have accepted the role. And if Harris turned down the role - then we could have all been spared the awful Michael Gambon taking over as Dumbledore after Harris' death... Lyford has the stats to back up a point I made before Game 1 vs the Indians - if the Cy Young voters waited till after the playoffs there's no way CC Sabathia would be close to Josh Beckett in Cy Young voting. It should be noted that over the last 12 years only two players have won the Cy Young award and have also had their team win the World Series. That was Randy Johnson in 2001 and Greg Maddux in 1995.... Just saying but 5-2 Clemson has outscored their opponents by 107 points so far this season but in the 4 games vs ACC teams they have scored 92 points and given up 92 points. I think you could say Clemson likes to pad the stats versus out of conference teams...

Friday, October 19, 2007

Krauthammer, Pelosi and Apologies

Charles Krauthammer has a very good column today on Nancy Pelosi's resolution regarding the Armenian genocide.

As I was reading it - I couldn't help but think that if Nancy Pelosi is sincere about addressing past wrongs then maybe she will soon submit a resolution condemning the Democratic Party for its past support of both slavery and segregation. I mean the segregation part is much more recent history than the Armenian genocide and isn't it better to get the beam out your own eye (so to speak) first before making resolutions condemning others? I won't hold my breathe for that to happen though unless Pelosi can come up with a way to somehow make such a resolution an attack on George Bush.
Manny Ramirez

I watched the first couple of innings of last night's game at a pub while I waited for my girls to be done with dance class. The consensus of everyone at the bar regarding Manny Ramirez is that the press should just get off his back. Manny may have the sunniest disposition of anyone on the Red Sox but there's a reason why he stopped talking to the media. That reason has been on display these past couple of days.

Consider that Manny is hitting .471 with an .609 OBP and a .882 SLG% against the Indians. Manny was signed to be a hitter and he's more than living up to his end of the bargain. If you took Manny's 2007 playoff numbers and extended them for an entire season then you'd be looking at an 80 HR, 240 RBI season. That doesn't look like the effort of a player who doesn't care.

Ask yourself if you'd rather have a guy who always has the "right" quote but whose performance in the playoffs always makes you wonder if he's a Mr. May like Alex Rodriguez or a guy like Manny? Right now Manny comes to the plate and everyone watching thinks that he's going to hit a home run.

Leave my Manny alone.

Thursday, October 18, 2007

Joe Torre

Joe Torre is out as manager of the New York Yankees. I respect the way Torre handled the situation.

I think Joe really wanted to come back as the manager but he did not want to come back if the offer was insulting to a man with his accomplishments and if the offer was such that he'd be dangling from a string every game of the season. Joe has accomplished plenty and has nothing to prove. In the end - he just didn't need the aggravation.

You have to hand it to Joe. Easily he could have had his agent call the Yankees and give them the news. Instead Joe got on a plane and told the Yankee front office the news in person. Classy right to the end.

I see Joe taking next year off and honestly at his age - he's probably done as a manager. Joe can spend next year in Hawaii enjoying himself. He's got plenty of money and if he feels the need to do something then he can write a book or doing speaking engagements (Torre would get top dollar on the lecture tour circuit). I don't think he'll come back to do any TV work for the YES Network because that wouldn't be fair to Don Mattingly or Joe Girardi. Torre wouldn't put those guys in the position where people would be calling for Joe's return all the time simply because he was so nearby.

You would have to think that ESPN is already thinking about offering Torre a Bill Parcells type deal to work on Baseball Tonight. Maybe ESPN could offer Torre Joe Morgan's spot doing the color on the ESPN Sunday night game. That would be great.

As fa as the Susan Ward picture at the top of the post - Joe Torre is many things but good to look at is not one of them (besides I've been looking for an excuse to post that picture all day).
Fact That May Only Interest Me

Prostitution was so rampant in Boston in the 1770's that a British military cartographer marked the red light district in Boston as Mount Whoredom. The American troops surrounding Boston back then may have been short of military dress and ammunition but they were drinking about a bottle of rum a day - apiece.
Absolute Poker

There is a storm of controversy surrounding the poker site Absolute Poker over charges of on-line cheating.

This to me seems the best explanation / hypothesis of what occurred. I disagree with one aspect though. "Dan Druff" thinks it was one person who just got greedy. I think the easier explanation is two people - one person who set up the scheme and a second person who did not fully understand the ins and outs but who got greedy and blew the whole deal.

For example, I can imagine a husband / wife team or a boyfriend / girlfriend where the geek husband / boyfriend set up this whole scheme as a way to get some extra money and keep the wife / girlfriend happy. The wife / girlfriend learns what the husband / boyfriend is doing and starts to think that he's acting too small. When the husband / boyfriend is not around the wife / girlfriend gets greedy and careless and blows the whole operation. The wife / girlfriend thought they were about to win lots of money but all they did was get the account frozen and the cheat exposed.

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Al Gore and Albert Camus

When Al Gore recently won the Nobel Prize for his work on Global Warming (he's either warning people of the dangers or causing it with his jet-setting depending on your point of view) - many people took the opportunity to point out that Gore joined a long list of people who won the award as much for their political views as anything else. Jimmy Carter, Yasser Arafat, and Le Duc Tho are the names most often mentioned as examples of the leftward-leaning of the selection committee.

A name that I have not seen mentioned by anyone but who also shows how the award is political as much as anything is Albert Camus who won the Nobel Prize in Literature in 1957 for his writing against capital punishment. Does anyone read those essays today as literature? I don't think so.

I am currently re-reading The Plague and I guess that is what got me thinking about the connection to Al Gore.
Jack Welsh to Buy Boston Globe?

OK - if it is true that Morgan Stanley has just dumped its 7.3% stake in the New York Times Company then this could just start a chain of events that results in Jack Welsh owning not just the Boston Globe but also a piece of the Boston Red Sox. If Morgan Stanley dumped the stock then other institutional stockholders will be forced to follow suit. The New York Times Company may be forced into doing something drastic to raise the stock price. Something drastic like selling the Boston Globe to Jack Welsh.

This is not the first time I banged this drum. This is what I wrote last July:
Here's something to keep in the back of your head - the conditions are becoming ripe for Jack Welsh (former CEO of GE) to purchase the Boston Globe.

Follow me here.

Last year Jack Welsh admitted that he was interested in purchasing the Boston Globe but at that time the New York Times Co. was not interested in selling. Circumstances may have changed.

Consider that we have just hit record highs in the stock market but the New York Times Co. stock continues to flounder. In fact just this week the bond rating for the New York Times Co. drop to just a BBB rating which is barely above the ratings for junk bonds. The folks at the NYT Co. may be forced into doing anything they can to raise their bond rating to prevent a massive sell-off and a free-fall in stock price. Selling the Boston Globe and some associated assets may be the only route to take.

Why would Jack Welsh want to buy the Globe though? I guess the reasons could be varied. He's retired and needs something to do. He used to be a golf nut but his health forced him to quit the game. His wife, Suzy Wetlaufer, is a former journalist who used to be a reporter for the Associated Press and also the former editor of the Harvard Business Review. The Boston Globe could be a project they could do together.

Welsh is a smart businessman and I wouldn't be surprised to see him also acquire the Boston.com site and the New York Times Co.'s partial ownership in the Boston Red Sox as part of any deal. Welsh is a big Red Sox fan - so this must add to the appeal of the deal to the retired former CEO.Also don't forget that turn-arounds are a Neutron Jack specialty. That challenge has to be very enticing.

Don't forget that part of the group Welsh would head includes Jack Connors the co-founder of the powerhouse Boston advertising firm Hill Holliday. Who better to fix the advertising and circulation problems that are plaguing the Globe than Welsh and Connors?

I for one hope this happens.
Judicial Idiocy Regarding Illegal Immigrants

It bugs me when officials who swear to uphold the law start picking and choosing what laws they want to uphold. The law says that employers are supposed to make sure that employees have proper documentation. When the Social Security numbers don't match the employees - then I'd say that proper documentation had not been provided.

While that may be true - Judge Charles Breyer (younger brother of Steven Breyer) says that DHS can't bother employers with warning about said mis-matched Social Security numbers.

If I were running DHS - I'd say "Fine - we won't give any warnings - we'll go straight to raids and arrests."

I know that this is "old news" but I just got around to tossing in my $.02.

HT Samantha Burns
Randi Rhodes

I wasn't going to comment on the Randi Rhodes situation but there are two observations that I want to make.

First, originally it was reported that Rhodes was mugged. Air America's Jon Elliott said so on air. That original report had to come from somewhere. There have been reports from Gawker that Rhodes was injured because she was drunk. Taking these two things together makes me think that if Rhodes injured herself while literally being "falling down drunk" then it's probably not too far of a jump to make that she was too embarrassed by the truth to tell it to her employers. "Dear Boss I can't make it into work today because I was mugged and lost some teeth" sounds a lot better than "Dear Boss I can't come into work today because I got drunk, fell down and smashed some of my teeth."

Second, the fake Brownshirt attack made me think of Morton Downey Jr. and the fake skinhead attack. According to Wikipedia:
In 1989, as fascination with Downey's show began to wane, he was involved in an incident in a San Francisco International Airport restroom in which he claimed to have been attacked by neo-Nazis who painted a swastika on his face and attempted to shave his head. Some inconsistencies in Downey's account (e.g., the swastika was painted in reverse, suggesting that Downey had drawn it himself in a mirror), and the failure of the police to find supportive evidence, led many to suspect that the incident was a hoax and a plea for attention.[7] A few months later, the show was canceled.[7]
If Rhodes did originally lie to her employers about being mugged then I wouldn't be surprised if she was fired. The move would make good business sense for Air America. Rhodes is probably among the highest paid if not the highest paid employee at Air America (I forget if Al Franken is still there). They could replace her with lower price talent and use all the hub-bub surrounding this fake mugging as free PR for the change. Its not like the move will hurt ratings.

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Norman Chad

I'm a fan. Here's his latest with this great piece of imagery:
A single woman of 38 is more likely to find a husband at a Daughters of the American Revolution rally than a Maryland basketball player is to graduate within six years.
John Brown's Raid on Harpers Ferry

Many people look at the firing upon Fort Sumter as the spark that lit the Civil War but I think the real spark came on this day 148 years ago when John Brown and his "army" of 21 attacked and occupied the armory at Harpers Ferry, VA.

The next day, US Marines under the command of US Army Colonel Robert E. Lee attacked Brown and his men. When the gun smoke cleared, 10 of Brown's men were dead (including 2 of his sons) and Brown was taken prisoner and shortly thereafter he was hanged.

I find it slightly amusing that most history books and mentions of Brown on the web either gloss over or omit completely the fact that Brown was almost certainly insane.

I'm not making any moral judgments on Brown's actions. I'm just saying that he was crazy. Seriously. When I first saw a picture of John Brown - I thought I was looking at Charlie Manson circa 1850.

The John Brown / Charles Manson analogy isn't that bad. Brown raided the armory because he wanted to arm slaves to start a full-fledged slave revolt. Charles Manson has said that he killed those folks in the Hollywood Hills because he hoped that blacks would be blamed and that would spark a race war in the US. This may be one of those things that I only find interesting. Or at least interesting enough to mention it every year.
Payton Award Watch

I readily admit that originally I was going to post about the injustice of Holy Cross JR QB Dominic Randolph still not being included in the Payton Award Watch list even after another stellar performance this week - 24 of 35 for 298 yards and 2 TD while rushing for another TD. As I've mentioned before - Randolph is 6th in the nation in 1-AA in passing yards and all but 2 of the players ahead of him have had an extra game.

However, when looking into the numbers to make the case for Randolph I became blown away by the numbers for Josh Johnson of the University of San Diego.

I know that the University of San Diego occupies a strange place where technically they are Division 1-AA but because of their schedule and non-scholarship status they really occupy a netherworld between 1-AA and Division 2. Say what you want about the program but the performance of starting QB Josh Johnson has been Bradyesque. In 5 games Johnson has completed 75% of his passes for 1,603 yards with 23 TD and ZERO interceptions. Yikes!

Payton Award Notes: Herb Donaldson, the RB from Western Illinois had a statement game against Missouri State rushing for 314 yards to go over 1,000 yards for the season with 4 games remaining... Not for nothing but Dominic Randolph is more deserving to be on the Payton Award watch list than Luke Drone the QB from Illinois State or Jerome Felton the RB from Furman to name just 2. I could name half the list... Mike McLeod the RB from Yale may be the front-runner for the award and I couldn't argue much about that. He can take over a game like perhaps no other runner in 1-AA...

Monday, October 15, 2007

Philadelphia Phillies

The Sports Prof has a nice postmortem and look ahead for the Phillies. The nucleus of Rollins, Utley and Howard has to be exciting for Phillies fans to look forward to.

The Phillies will have some money to spend this off-season and it will be interesting to see how they send it. I would look into approaching the Yankees for Mike Mussina if were the GM because Mussina is toast in New York but could be rejuvenated if he went to the NL (think of Bronson Arroyo's first year in Cincinnati). Mussina would only cost $11 million in 2008 and he's from Pennsylvania - so he could waive his no-trade clause.
Harry Reid

Instapundit writes:
HARRY REID'S HOME-STATE APPROVAL RATINGS have plunged. Another Daschle in the making?
The Professor links to a poll showing Reid's ratings plunging like a Madonna neckline.

I just want to note that I predicted this very thing FIVE MONTHS ago. I also want to note this final paragraph:
So Harry Reid is probably secure in his job (unless he's arrested for ethics violations) until 2010 and Nancy Pelosi would be hard pressed to take positions that are too-far left for her Congressional District. However, the hard left turn of the Democratic Party and their Congressional leaders will probably cost them the Presidential election in 2008 and control of both houses of Congress in 2008 as well. For that - I guess we should be thankful to Harry Reid and his inability to control the things he spouts off about.
1920s Reporter Guy

I actually find this pretty funny. The sports media could use a little more Damon Runyan-type reporting in my opinion.

It's not funny when press conferences turn into circuses but one amusing shtick question once and a while never hurt anyone. I think Belichick and Brady both handled the questions just fine.
Belichick You Magnificent Bastard!

Jim Nance (actual pre-game question to Tony Romo): Did you prepare for this [game] by reading some of his [Bill Belichick's] books?

Tony Romo (the answer I wished he gave): Who am I? Patton? Belichick you magnificent bastard! I read your book!

Tony Romo
(actual answer): I didn't go out and get them this week or anything. But just in the past, I wanted to read about great coaches. I think he tries to think like the quarterback thinks. I think he wants to say, what does this quarterback do to allow himself to have success? If this quarterback has tendencies to do this or this, he'll try to take those away.

HT Boston Sports Media
Knights Templar and Forfeiture Laws

A very interesting look at the Knights Templar and other militaristic monastic orders.

The post also touches on the forfeiture laws which were used to undo the Templars. Make sure you read the comments which show how the forfeiture laws are still alive and well and in many cases as unfair as the law used against the Templars. Also read for a number of interesting historical footnotes.

I am reminded of the forfeiture law which allow game officials (law officers - not referees) to seize your boat (if you dove from a boat) or your car (if you drove to the beach you dove from) if you take an undersized lobster while diving.

HT Instapundit

Sunday, October 14, 2007

Ronald Reagan vs. Ted Baxter

Time for another installment of the Ronald Reagan vs. Ted Baxter betting NFL football contest.

The conservative theory of NFL betting is to take a home team getting 3 or fewer points. Who is more conservative than Ronald Reagan? Note - this theory does not include games which are a "pick". The Ted Baxter theory of football betting says to take the NFL teams getting 10 or more points under the idea that both teams are professionals and how much difference could there be between two groups of professionals? Ted Baxter used this method to soundly whip Lou Grant betting football games.

Week 4 NFL Picks


Ronald Reagan - going into today the Ronald Reagan theory has been 6-4 for the season. Last week the theory went 0-2 with both the Chiefs and Broncos getting smuckled at home. Today there were one game each for Ronnie and Ted. Chiefs getting 3 beat the Bengals 27-20. That raises Ronnie's season mark to 7-4.


Ted Baxter - last week the Ted Baxter theory went 1-1-1 as the Colts easily covered, the Patriots pushed giving 17 and the Cowboys were lucky to leave Buffalo with a W never mind cover the 11 points. This week the Chargers were giving 10 to the Raiders and they covered by winning 28-14. That put Ted's record at 5-7-1 for the season.
Boston College Football

Matt Ryan and the Boston College Eagles beat Notre Dame 27-14 yesterday to run their record to 7-0 on the season (and once again let me point out that I was probably the only person to predict a 7-0 start in writing). Ryan was good but not great completing 65% of his passes (32-49) for 291 yards, 2 TD's and 1 INT.

With #1 LSU and #2 California both losing - the #4 Eagles can expect to move up in the polls. My guess is that they move to #3 with Ohio State taking the #1 spot and Southern Florida jumping over BC on the strength of their drubbing of Central Florida yesterday.

Many people still aren't comfortable with the idea of BC ranked so high (like ESPN's Mark May). I understand that mindset because to many people BC is one of those teams that will look good on paper but then fold in the big game. Yesterday's performance against the Fighting Irish helps illustrate the problem. BC missed an extra point and an easily makable field goal. The score should have been at least 31-14. Then you add in the fact that half Notre Dame's points came off a BC turnover and some people will think "BC would never get away with that stuff against a top team." To an extent these people are right. I'm no fan of running up the score for the sake of scoring but when you completely dominate a game like yesterday (459 total yards for BC to just 222 for ND) then that should be reflected on the scoreboard. All too often - that's not the case with Boston College.

BC's next game against Virginia Tech on the road will be its biggest test. If BC can win that game - then they can run the table and go undefeated. Who would have thought that at the beginning of the season? The BC players have to realize that their next game just may be for the right to play in the championship game. If they can elevate their game to that next level then they should be able to quiet those who aren't sold on them yet. In short - they have to prove it to themselves first.

Saturday, October 13, 2007

Red Sox / Indians ALCS Game 2 Live Blog

I have the time to do some live blogging tonight - so what the heck.

First off let me say that I was a huge Springsteen fan. I use the past tense because to be honest - he's lost his fastball. The Radio Nowhere opening just didn't have that old-time "oumph". Do you know what I mean? The Boss is teetering on become a South Park parody. I'm sorry but its true. How long before he becomes a Vegas act?

One thing I've been dwelling on today is how Josh Barfield just completely missed on his projected production this year. What is wrong? Was he lightning in a bottle last year? Was the NL West so weak last year that Barfield just projected as a better player than he was? Just strange. I thought the Indians had a steal in Barfield. It turns out that the Padres probably had the steal with Kevin Kouzmanoff and his 18 HR (the same as Casey Blake but in 100 fewer AB and Blake didn't have to play half his games at Petco Park).

8:17 - Tim McCarver just admitted he has no clue. Tim we've known that for years! Where the heck is Al Leiter? This guys spells out how I feel exactly.

8:33
- Indians go up 1-0 on Victor Martinez's double which scored Grady Sizemore. It could have been worse. The Red Sox were lucky Eric Wedge was so willing to give up an out with that bunt. Was that really James Taylor doing the Red Sox player introductions or was that Norm McDonald doing a bad James Taylor impression? Kevin Youkilis is the first base player?

8:51 - Is this really the time to be talking about Schilling being a free agent? Thank goodness that double play kept us from further subjection to that line of discussion. Schilling has a gaming company in Boston - he isn't going anywhere. He'll re-sign for $13 million with a team option for 2009. Mark it down.

9:05 - Carmona is on track to be over 100 pitches by the 5th inning. That's good for the Red Sox. Schilling is on pace to get to 100 pitches in the 7th inning. That's good for the Red Sox too (looking for silver linings here since there isn't much action and Buck and McCarver are tough to listen to).

9:20
- The over / under for this game was 8.5 runs and I had the feeling it would be a tight game but once again I did not have the conviction to put my money where my mouth is. At this pace Carmona will be toast by the end of the 5th inning.

9:32 - Manny walks and the Red Sox tie the game at 1-1. In Little League the kids would be shouting, "pitcher's blowing up, pitcher's blowing up." Carmona did not want to pitch to Manny Ramirez. The duo of Manny and Big Papi have the Indian pitchers psyched out right now. Mike Lowell comes up huge once again. Two out hit and the score is now 3-1. Tim McCarver "Lowell drove in more RBI - I mean runs this year than any other Red Sox third baseman." Umm grandpa - I think you mean Lowell had more RBI this year than any other Red Sox third baseman in the teams history. What you said is the same as saying Dustin Pedroia had more RBI this year than any Red Sox second baseman.

9:47 - Jhonny Peralta hits a 3-run dinger and the Indians re-take the lead at 4-3. Yuk!

10:05 - Pedroia strikes out again. I don't know what happened to his plate discipline. Pedroia was so hard to strikeout during the regular season. Dustin comes off as a kid with all the confidence in the world but you have to wonder if he's got a bad case of butterflies at the plate. After 4 innings - Fausto Carmona is up to 95 pitches. This game is going wicked slow. I hope it is over by the time the Patriots kick off.

10:11 - Grady Sizemore hits a HR to make it 5-3 and the bastard costs me $20 because my friend Tim has Sizemore in our HR pool. I have Manny, Hafner and Martinez. Tim has Ortiz, Sizemore and Lowell. Now I'm glad I didn't take the under on this game.

10:30
- I see those commercials where Tiger Woods is pitching razor blades and I wonder how often Tiger really needs to shave. Seriously - he looks like the type of guy who could skip a few days and nobody would really notice. Just saying.

10:36
- MANNY! MANNY! MANNY! Not only does he tie it up at 5 apiece with a 2-run bomb - he also wins my $20 back! Way to go Manny!

10:38 - Mike Lowell puts the Red Sox up 6-5 and my $20 goes back to Tim (well worth the money). Mike Lowell has to be back next year. He just has to. I hope management realizes that Sox fans would prefer 2-years of Lowell to 5-years of Alex Rodrigez.

11:07 - That was a long drawn out, sucky half-inning. Indians tie it up at 6. Meanwhile elsewhere in the world of sports LSU and Cal both lost. That means that Boston College probably moves up to 3 in the polls (I see Ohio St. #1 and I see South Florida hopping over BC to #2). Interesting time to be a sports fan in Boston - the hub of the sports universe.

11:30
- Nice job by Okijima. Now the Sox have the Giant part of the order coming up and Jonathan Papelbon waiting in the wings. I admit I'm getting a bit tired and might just veg out on the couch. Oh and once again - Tim McCarver sucks.

11:52 - Wow - Dusty Baker to manage the Reds? My sympathies to any Reds fans out there. On the bright side - at least baseball fans won't have to listen to his moronic ramblings on ESPN any more. Maybe Dusty could do us all a favor and take John Kruk with him.

12:44
- You know people complain that playoff baseball games now start too late for kids to stay up to watch them. Some of these games (this one included) go too late for most adults to stay up and watch them.

1:12
- Eric Gagne comes out of the game and every Red Sox fan watching at home breathes a sigh of relief and says "Thank God!"

1:18 - I stayed up for this? The Indians score two runs on two singles. Yuk! Sorry - three runs on three singles.

EDIT - So OK. When the flood gates opened in the 11th inning I bailed. Can you blame me?
Face Rape?

Face rape? Did he really say that? I know that the Supreme Court ruled against Texas sodomy laws but I'm pretty sure that "face raping" is still illegal.

HT The Big Lead
Red Sox / Indians ALCS Game 1

The Red Sox spanked the Indians 10-3 last night in the first game of the ALCS. Here are my thoughts and observations from the game.

The game was built up as a potential pitcher's duel between the top two AL Cy Young Award candidates. I had a feeling that CC Sabathia was going to be nervous and that the Red Sox were going to get him into a high pitch count early in the game. The over / under on runs for the game was set at 8 and I had told a friend earlier in the day that the game probably wouldn't be a low scoring affair at all. Looking back I wish I put my money where my mouth was and took the over for last night's game.

Speaking of looking back - I'm guessing there are a number of voters for the Cy Young Award who may be second guessing their vote for Sabathia over Beckett after last night's game. I think Josh Beckett deserves the award but when you look at the numbers - Sabathia is equally deserving. My guess is that Beckett would be OK with things if Sabathia got the award but Beckett got the World Series ring.

As good as Josh Beckett was last night - I think any Red Sox starter would have earned a W with 10 runs to back them up. Those runs don't just happen either. When you have an all-time great combination of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez in the middle of the order reaching base with every turn at bat - the runs aren't accidental.

Seeing how devastating the Ortiz-Manny combo has been so far in the playoffs actually makes me a bit mad. I'm mad at all the writers who make it a pastime every spring and early summer writing about how Manny should be traded and how his antics aren't worth the production he brings to the plate. You'll hear nothing but the sounds of silence regarding Manny from those knights of the keyboards now that the playoffs have rolled around and once again Manny is the best right-handed bat in baseball.

I'm talking about morons like Peter King who makes Manny his personal off-handed comment pinyata. Yeah - keep picking the Vikings to win the Super Bowl, bitching about how your fat ass can't fit in a regular size airline seat and how "the Papelbon bubble has burst" (August 14, 2006). Manny Ramirez is one of the all-time great hitters and next year we will see him passing some significant milestone on the all-time lists as frequently as Peter King writes talking from his ass pronouncements in his Monday Morning Quarterback column.

I know I should be looking at the positives of last night's win but by the same token - I think that those writers who teed off on Manny should be held accountable and now is as good a time as any. This - of course - won't happen because other writers just let those things slide, pretend those words were never written and then they scratch their head and wonder why Manny doesn't speak with the media.

As far as the series going forward is concerned - I'd look for more of a low scoring pitcher's duel tonight with Curt Schilling the veteran who has been there before and Fausto Carmona the young gun who seems hard to phase pitching tonight. It looks bad overall for the Indians though because CC Sabathia does not seem to hold any mystery for the Red Sox batters and that was the horse the Indians really needed to ride to victory.

Friday, October 12, 2007

Red Sox Player's Cars at Fenway

I love getting little details like this. If you've ever tried to park around Fenway Park - you know parking is at a premium. It was interesting getting the insight of where the players park their cars.

I would have pegged Theo Epstein as a hybrid guy. Maybe he takes the T like Michael Dukakis?

(As an aside - my spellcheck offers the following corrections for "Dukakis" - Weakish, Rakish and Pakistani. I'm amused by that because I'll now think of Dukakis as a weakish, rakish Pakistani guy.)

Thursday, October 11, 2007

Mitt Romney and Bruce Campbell

Baseball Crank has an interesting post (actual part 1 of a 5 part series) on why he does not support Mitt Romney. In the comments someone mentioned how much Mitt looks like actor Bruce Campbell. I've noticed this resemblance in the past but thought this was as good a chance as any to toss out some thoughts on the matter.


In many ways the persona of Bruce Campbell is the exact opposite of Mitt Romney. Campbell is the sort of regular guy you'd like to have a beer with. Romney doesn't drink and given his business background - if he came up to talk with you in the back of your mind you might be worrying that he's about to eliminate your job. Campbell would make you want to say "take this job and shove it!"

Romney should capitalize on this dichotomy and hire Bruce Campbell to do some appearances and commercials as the "bizarro Romney". They could do commercials together in a "what Romney says" and "what bizarro Campbell Romney actually wants to say." It would be a hit and it would take down some of the complaints about Romney being too slick, phony or stiff.

I should be making big money as a political adviser. Take my idea of John McCain hiring Red Sox legend Carlton Fisk to do commercials for him in New Hampshire. If McCain did that - he'd win the New hampshire primary going away.
Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

John Donovan of SI does a position by position comparison for the NLCS and gives pretty much the edge to everything except starting pitching to the Rockies. I'll quibble on a couple of things such as saying Todd Helton is "just OK defensively" and that the Diamondbacks have the "intangibles" going for them (I'd disagree on both of these points). Donovan picks the Rockies in 6 games but with home field advantage and better starting pitching - I still find it tough to pick against the Diamondbacks... There is a pretty good chance that game 1 of the ALCS in Boston could be rained out. This would make it much more difficult to have the game 1 starters also start games 4 and 7 (if necessary) because it would eliminate an off-day between starts. This means the teams probably would be forced to go with 4 starters each which I think gives an edge to Boston since they have a deeper pitching staff. The Red Sox can use Tim Wakefield as their 4th starter with Jon Lester as long relief.... ESPN's Tim Kurkjian picks the Red Sox in 7... I think an aspect that is not discussed enough is how the Indians chose to support manager Eric Wedge in 2004 when they basically picked him over supposedly budding star Milton Bradley (who has never lived up to his supposed talent levels). That decision to trade away the disgruntled Bradley has allowed Cleveland to get to the point they are today - as a cohesive, gruntled unit. It is a lesson that GM's should not forget... David Pinto has an ALCS preview at The Sporting news which focuses in on strikeouts. Largely because Boston pitchers strikeout more batters and Cleveland hitters tend to strikeout more often - Pinto picks the Red Sox in 7 games.... Speaking of strikeouts - I've been meaning to mention the incredible fact that this year Dustin Pedroia has walked 47 times yet struck out just 42 times in 520 at bats. His number of strikeouts is mind numbingly low for a rookie who has a seemingly swing for it all approach at the plate. Which is why I'm bothered by the fact that Pedroia struck out twice against the Angels in the ALDS. If Pedroia can work the counts and not strikeout against the Indians - that's a big advantage in helping to get at Cleveland's bullpen...
Do You Have a Camaro for Sale?

One of the great Internet pranks of all-time. Funny, funny stuff.

Scottie is a genius.
Odds to Win 2008 Presidential Election

Here are the current odds on who will win the 2008 Presidential race (via Bodog.com).

Hillary Clinton 3/2
Rudy Giuliani 15/4
Barack Obama 9/2
Fred Thompson 6/1
Mitt Romney 9/1
Al Gore 10/1
John Edwards 14/1
Mike Bloomberg 15/1
John McCain 16/1
Bill Richardson 40/1
Ron Paul 45/1
Mike Huckabee 55/1
Chris Dodd 60/1

I think once you get past the top 5 choices - then you start wandering into sucker bet territory.

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

League Championship Series

It's down to 4 teams and of course I'm rooting for the Red Sox to win it all.

Lyford takes a look at the match-ups using Bill James' playoff prediction formula and also Baseball Prospectus' "Secret Sauce" formula. Both systems point to a Red Sox / Arizona World Series.

Meanwhile Vegas seems to be pointing toward a Red Sox / Rockies matchup.

According to the lines at Bodog.com - the Red Sox are a -$170 favorite (risk $170 to win $100) over Cleveland at +$135 (risk $100 to win $135). The Rockies are a -$135 favorite (risk $135 to win $100) over Arizona at +$115 (risk $100 to win $115).

Keep in mind that the formulas Lyford highlights point to who will win the series. The betting lines are geared toward evening out the betting. Many people are jumping on the Rockies bandwagon because they have been so hot. Its tough to argue against that but Arizona clearly has the better pitching and they have seen Colorado a ton of times this year. I think the NL is a toss-up.
Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Traditional powers Miami (FL) and Notre Dame may be down this year but it looks like help is on its way. Of the top 100 high school recruits - according to Rivals.com - the Irish and Hurricanes have already snagged 6 players each. That bodes well for a return to the top for each program... Hats off to the ESPN ombudsman Le Anne Schreiber who rightfully points out that making controversies out of nothing is getting out of hand in the sports media. I especially like her take-down of Greg Easterbrook:
Easterbrook is entitled to his opinion, to his logic, to his analogies, however strained I think they are, but what is not OK is cloaking opinion in the camouflage of reporting.
Ouch! Personally I gave up reading Easterbrook long ago. His verbal diarrhea style of writing is just not my cup of tea... Some people may be surprised at Ivan Rodriguez having his $13 million option picked up by the Tigers but when you consider that the free agent alternatives are Michael Barrett, Paul Lo Duca and Jason Kendall the decision look much less surprising. Some people thought that the Tigers would buy out I-Rod for $3 million and then move Brandon Inge back behind the plate from 3rd base. That would have just left a hole at 3rd base... Betsy has a nice look at how Anita Hill's testimony at the Clarence Thomas confirmation meetings does not hold up to scrutiny. In some people's minds a black man can be anything he wants to be in this country - as long as he's not a Republican.
Saint Cornelius of Ireland

Though not widely remembered today - at one point Saint Cornelius of Ireland (not to be confused with Saint Cornelius of Antioch) was second in popularity in the Emerald Isle only to Saint Patrick.

Saint Patrick is remembered for driving the snakes out of Ireland. Saint Cornelius was said to have driven the squirrels out of Ireland. This "miracle" of Saint Cornelius later proved to be his undoing. During the Great Potato Famine starving Irishmen and women wished they had tasty squirrel meat to eat and they cursed Saint Cornelius for driving out the furry rodents. In response to this outrage - Pope Pius IX removed Cornelius from the roll of official Catholic Saints.

Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Yankee Roster Moves

With the Yankees bounced out of the playoffs - I started to think "what would I do if I were the Yankees GM?"

The 2007 team payroll was about $190 million and I'd expect it to be about $200 million in 2008. There are three big contracts that should come off the books this winter:

Roger Clemens - $17 million (approximate)
Bobby Abreu - $15 million
Alex Rodriguez - $20 million ($27 million minus $7 million from Texas)

The last one - A-Rod - is the one which will cause the most heartburn. If A-Rod opts out of his contract - then I bid him adieu and wish him luck. For all the numbers A-Rod has put up - it should not be overlooked that the Yankees made it further into the playoffs with a role-player like Aaron Boone than they did with superstar Alex Rodriguez. I'd make Mike Lowell my priority free-agent signing and would expect 2-years and $25 million would get the job done if Lowell is willing to relocate from Boston. If not - then I'd give Wilson Betemit a shot at 3rd.

The second priority would be to get Andy Pettitte to agree to come back for another year. Pettitte holds a player option for 2008 and if Joe Torre is let go - then I think the new manager would have to be Joe Girardi or Don Mattingly for Pettitte to feel that Yankee pride pull to get him to come back. Otherwise Pettitte easily could just go back to the Astros.

Two other Yankees stalwarts need to be re-signed. Of course I'm talking about Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada. Both these guys are still very productive and both deserve to retire as Yankees. Besides there really aren't any free agent closers or catchers available who could come close to fill their shoes.

There are three players with just one year remaining on their contracts that I would try and shop at $.50 on the dollar:

Jason Giambi - he's $21 million in 2008 plus $5 million 2009 buyout. Maybe Oakland or San Francisco would bite.
Mike Mussina - $11 million - I could see him accepting a trade to either the Phillies or the Orioles. Both teams need starters but I would make sure Pettitte is signed before I tried to deal Mussina.
Carl Pavano - $11 million. This guy needs to get out of town to start over. At $.50 on the dollar - I imagine there are a number of teams that would take the risk.

As far as free agents are concerned - I'd go after either Andruw Jones or Torii Hunter with the idea that either Matsui or Damon would move to DH or 1st base (think Darin Erstad). Don't laugh but I'd also go after Tom Glavine and his guaranteed almost 200 IP per year. Getting Glavine would be a stretch though because I think its down to either play for the Braves or retire.
Joe Torre

Last night may have been Joe Torre's last game as Yankee manager. If this is true then its a shame. Joe Torre did a great job getting the Yankees into the playoffs this year and he doesn't deserve to be the fall guy.

If anyone should take the blame for a team with an almost $200 million payroll being bounced from the first round - well I say that person should be GM Brian Cashman.

Joe Torre had to work with a patchwork pitching rotation this year. Let's not forget that Cashman's plan going into this season was to have Mike Mussina as the number 3 pitcher, Carl Pavano as the number 4 pitcher and Kei Igawa as the number 5 starter. How ugly and dumb does that look in hindsight?

Mark my words - if Steinbrenner cuts Torre loose between now and 10-days after the World Series - then Alex Rodriguez will use that as his excuse as to why he voided his contract.

Monday, October 08, 2007

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Jerry Glanville is still a gambler. He's coaching Portland State and his QB Brian White is leading all Division 1-AA QB's in passing with 1,971 yards. Saturday his team lost a game when he gambled down by one with almost no time left and the two-point conversion failed. I'm glad Glanville is coaching because that prevents him from doing Patriots pre-season broadcasts... Dominic Randolph of Holy Cross is 6th in Division 1-AA in passing with 1,571 yards. Holy Cross has only played 5 games so far and all of the QB's ahead of Randolph except two have have played 6 games. The two QB's ahead of him on the list who also have 5 games played have 9 more yards (Matt Nichols, Eastern Washington) and 30 more yards total (Scott Riddle, Elon). What is a disgrace is the fact that none of the top 6 QB's in the nation are even on the Payton Award Watch List. How can that be?... Yankee fans love Wang (OK so I've got the maturity of a 10-year old)... I like the Cowboys giving 10 points tonight for what its worth...
Afternoon Links

Here are some good stuff to peruse over your noontime repast.

- You've probably already read about the Frost's and how it was a fraud for the Democrats to have them represent a poor family in need of health insurance. GM's Corner does a good job explaining the fraud. What I don't get is the fact that Mr. Frost is a small business owner and he's had to shell out $40,000 per year to educate his children because obviously the public schools in his area aren't up to his standards. How can he still be a Democrat? I guess he's in it for the potential free healthcare.

- A nice look at why Jim Tracy was out of his depth as a manager.

- Why were the Red Sox able to beat the Angels? I thought it was simply because Boston was the better team. Ben Jacobs looks at more esoteric reasons.

- Maybe Al Franken is just unlikeable no matter how much he spends?
NFL Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous NFL thoughts and observations.

For a game that ended up 34-17 - there was lots of drama in end of the Patriots / Browns. Let me explain. First let me explain that locally the line on the game was 16.5 points (some places were Patriots minus 17 points). With about a minute left in the game the Patriots were up by 10 points (27-17) but were stopped on a 4th and goal and so it looked like any hope of covering by the Patriots was out the window. Then with less than a minute left in the game - Randal Gay forced a fumble and returned it for a TD to make it 34-17. The drama was not over yet though. The Browns managed to get the ball down to the Patriots 10-yard line but on 4th down they went for a TD instead of kicking a field goal that would have made the final score 34-20 (and made losers out of anyone who bet the Patriots)... If USC loses 3 games this year then I would not be surprised if Pete Carroll takes a long hard look at the San Diego head coaching job... I'd like to thank Texans QB Matt Schaub for that one point he got for me at the QB slot yesterday for one of my fantasy football teams. Yeah - its really tough to get one measly point from the QB position. I could have started Carson Palmer who had a bye week and still been just one point off what Schaub had to offer... It could have been worse - I could have had Matt Hasselbeck who had ZERO fantasy points on his 13-27, 116 yards and 1 interception performance. Or worse I could have had Jon Kitna who had minus 2 points with his ZERO TD 2 INT performance... Has there been a bigger season-long fantasy bust than Larry Johnson though?... The Saints have scored just 51 points this season and I think the whispers about Reggie Bush being vastly over-rated are no longer whispers...

Sunday, October 07, 2007

Ronald Reagan vs. Ted Baxter

Time for another installment of the Ronald Reagan vs. Ted Baxter betting NFL football contest.

The conservative theory of NFL betting is to take a home team getting 3 or fewer points. Who is more conservative than Ronald Reagan? Note - this theory does not include games which are a "pick". The Ted Baxter theory of football betting says to take the NFL teams getting 10 or more points under the idea that both teams are professionals and how much difference could there be between two groups of professionals? Ted Baxter used this method to soundly whip Lou Grant betting football games.

Week 4 NFL Picks


Ronald Reagan - so far the Ronald Reagan theory has been 6-2 for the season. Last week the theory went 3-2. Right now there are two games that qualify. The Chiefs are getting 2 hosting the Jaguars and the Broncos are getting 1 hosting the Chargers. Two other games are close and I'll base things on final game-time point spreads (the Rams are getting 4 against the Cardinals and the 49ers are getting 3.5 against the Ravens).


Ted Baxter - last week the Ted Baxter theory went 1-2 as both the Cowboys and Colts easily covered while the Chargers lost outright to the Chiefs. That puts the Ted Baxter theory at 4-5 for the season. This week there are three games that fit the theory. The Cowboys are giving 11 to Buffalo in Buffalo on Monday night. The home Patriots giving 17 to the hot and cold Browns. Finally the line on the Indy / Tampa Bay game has moved down to 10 points at the time of writing from the 11 points its been at most of the week. Some places have the line at 9.5 - I am going to include the Indy game as an official pick for Ted Baxter but check the line at kickoff.
College Football Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous college football thoughts and observations.

I watched the final quarter of Stanford's upset win over USC and I must say that John David Booty at QB for USC makes USC beatable on any given Saturday. Forget the 4 interceptions he threw - USC got the ball back with 49 seconds left and the ball on about their own 45-yard line. All they needed was a couple of quick out completions to set up the game winning field goal. Instead they used up 4 downs and lost 7 yards. Matt Leinart or Carson Palmer would have set the team up for that final field-goal try. John David Booty just isn't a big time QB and if his back-up leads them to a couple of wins - then John David Booty could have played his last down for the Trojans.... With USC and #5 Wisconsin both losing - that means #7 Boston College will probably move up into the top 5. I've got to mention that I may have been the only person to predict a 7-0 start and a top 5 ranking for the Eagles. BC still has to beat Notre Dame to get to 7-0 but with the Irish beating UCLA yesterday - I think that actually makes it easier for BC to win the game. Notre Dame no longer has the urgency to win their first game of the year weighing down on their shoulders... Boston College will probably move up to #5 in the AP poll but I find it amusing that pre-season Michigan was ranked #5 in the AP poll and now they aren't even in the top 25. Pre-season BC wasn't even in the top 25 in the AP poll. Pre-season Louisville was ranked 10th while Missouri was not even ranked. Now Missouri may rise as high as 10th in the poll while Louisville is not even in the top 25. Pre-season it seemed like the voters had no clue about teams like South Florida, Cincinnati, and Illinois while they ranked others purely on reputation. I point this out just to emphasize how unscientific and random the current system is.... Matt Ryan helped himself in his Heisman hopes with a 300 yard performance (or 312 yards depending on whose stats you use) with 4 TD's and most importantly ZERO interceptions. Just as BC will now be in the top 5 - Ryan should also be in the top 5 for Heisman hopefuls... Speaking of awards - Holy Cross QB Dominic Randolph should at least move into the Payton Award watch list with his 6 TD, 404-yard performance against Brown yesterday...

Friday, October 05, 2007

Seperated at Birth

I can't watch TBS's in studio segments without thinking how giant Frank Thomas' noggin is and also how much he reminds me of Skeletor.

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

I've been trying to give the TBS announcers the benefit of the doubt but when the announcers can't tell David Ortiz from Manny Ramirez and vice versa - well then let's just go ahead and join the crowd who have been watching the game with the sound off... The Pirates fired Jim Tracy. That's a step in the right direction. Jim Tracy is an awful manager. Good move by new Pirates GM Neal Huntington... Speaking of TBS's coverage sucking - I need some sort of Jose Mota decoder ring. WTF is he trying to say?... If I was Pirates GM Neal Huntington - the two off-season moves that I'd make would be to try and sign free agents Kris Benson and Darin Erstad. Benson used to play for the Pirates, he'd probably be happy with an incentive laden contract and his wife would keep the sportswriters busy. The Pirates need a centerfielder and Erstad can still cover some ground plus he can be a steadying veteran presence. The top prospect for the Pirates Andrew McCutchen is a centerfielder but he's injury prone. It would be great if he was healthy and able to contribute to the big league team but having Erstad would allow the Pirates not to rush McCutchen...
Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

One thing that jumped out at me when looking at the stats for the Texas Rangers was the fact that they had just one pitcher qualify for being ranked for the ERA crown. You needed 162 IP to qualify and only Kevin Millwood among the Rangers starters qualified. Among the teams to make the playoffs in the AL - the Red Sox had three (Curt Schilling just missed making it four). The Indians had three (Jake Westbrook just missed making it four). The Angels had two (but Jered Weaver missed by one inning and Ervin "Magic" Santana missed by just 12 innings). The Yankees had two (Wang and Pettitte). As far as the NL teams making the playoffs - the Cubs had 4 qualify, the Diamondbacks had three, the Rockies had three and the Phillies just two. I guess my point is that if you want to make the playoffs you really meed at least three starters who will at the very least eat up a lot of innings for you if you want to have a sniff at the playoffs. Of course you can also pay to have an all-star at every position like the Yankees... Dr. Z has a very nice appreciation of discuss genius Al Oerter who recently passed away... Speaking of eating innings - Tom Glavine will probably decline his $13 million option to stay with the Mets probably as early as today. Over the five years he's been with the Mets - Glavine has averaged a little over 200 IP per season. That is not easily replaced. I know that Glavine faded down the stretch for the Mets but I will say that I think that if the Braves had Glavine's innings this season then the Braves would have made the playoffs. And I think that a rotation of Smoltz, Hudson and Glavine would have been tough to beat for any of the NL playoff teams. Of course hindsight is 20/20 and this is assuming that John Shuerholtz would have Glavine back..
Another Reason to Root for the Rockies

This is an excellent story:
The widow of Rockies minor league coach Mike Coolbaugh, who died after getting hit by a line drive this season, will be granted a full share of the team's playoff winnings after a team vote.
The Legacy of Sputnik

Charles Krauthammer has a very interesting read on what the ramifications of the Russians launching Sputnik may have been.
We had no idea how lucky we were with Sputnik. The subsequent panic turned out to be an enormous boon. The fear of falling behind the Communists induced the federal government to pour a river of money into science and math education. The result was a generation of scientists who gave us not only Apollo and the moon, but the sinews of the information age — for example, ARPA that created ARPANET that became the Internet — that have assured American technological dominance to this day.
I also find it highly appropriate to be having this discussion today on what would have Robert Goddard's 125th birthday.
Rodney Dangerfield

Rodney Dangerfield died three years ago today. Some of my favorite Dangerfield one-liners.
My wife was afraid of the dark... then she saw me naked and now she's afraid of the light.
Yeah, I know I'm ugly... I said to a bartender, 'Make me a zombie.' He said 'God beat me to it.'
I come from a stupid family. During the civil war my great uncle fought for the west
I worked in a pet store and people would ask how big I would get.
I remember the time I was kidnapped and they sent back a piece of my finger to my father. He said he wanted more proof.
I was so depressed that I decided to jump from the tenth floor. They sent up a priest. He said " on your mark ......"
Morning Links

Some stuff to peruse over your morning coffee.

- Lylines looks at the Bill James play-off predictor system. I was thinking about this before the playoffs started. It's been remarkably accurate over the years. This year the system has the Red Sox, Yankees, Arizona and Phillies by just a smidge winning their series.

- Funny Halloween dealie from the past. Maybe its just me but I find this wicked funny.

- When I first started this blog - Pearly Gates was one of the first blogs to link to my stuff. Now that the Red Sox are playing the Angels - it's good to return the favor (and see the series from an Angels perspective).

Thursday, October 04, 2007

Kansas City Royals

This morning right before waking up - I had a dream where I owned the Kansas City Royals. I have no idea why I would have such a dream but it got me thinking - what would I do if I did own the Kansas City Royals?

Well the first thing I would do would be to hire Bill James as a Sr. VP to help consult with me and find ways for the Royals to maximize their meager assets. I'm thinking James would take the job because he's a Royals fan. I'd keep Dayton Moore as GM and Buddy Bell as manager but I would tinker with the roster.

Last year the Royals had a payroll of about $67 million but there's over $32 million that could come off this offseason. The money would come from:

Mike Sweeney - $11 million
Odalis Perez - $7.75 million
Jason LaRue - $5.2 million
Reggie Sanders - $5 million
Emil Brown - $3.45 million

There is a good core of young players to build around. The core includes (with ages in parenthesis):

Alex Gordon 3rd (23)
Mark Teahen RF (25)
Billy Butler DH (21)

Gil Meche SP (28)
Brian Bannister SP (26)

The major needs would be LF and 3rd starter. I would probably take a risk on Bobby Kielty for LF (or maybe Eric Hinske and possibly both). I figure Kielty and/or Hinske would cost less than $10 million over 2 years. For the 3rd starter I would take a risk on either Kris Benson or Matt Clement (whoever had the better medical prognosis). My thinking on 3rd starter is that either one of those guys need a season where they could get a lot of starts to show that they are back at top levels. They would come relatively cheap and if they showed lots of progress by the All-Star game then they could be dangled for prospects.

Overall I think the Royals should be competitive - not win the division competitive but at least .500 competitive next season. Dayton Moore has them moving in the right direction but if I were owner - I'd take all the credit.
Lima Time



I'm posting this just because its been too long since we've seen Mrs. Lima.
Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

My long drive home from Basking Ridge was made much easier when I learned that Sirius has a channel completely devoted to Bruce Springsteen - Sirius Channel 10... I only ended up seeing the first two innings of last night's Red Sox / Angels game. I timed it to eat dinner when the game started but then I had to continue driving. I missed the end of the game because it was "Know your school night" for my oldest. Just an observation but its easy to pick out the classrooms used for teaching a foreign language because vocabulary words are written in pencil on 1/3 of the desks... Josh Beckett's shutout in last night's playoff game tie him with Whitey Ford and Mordecai Brown for second on the career list with 3, one behind Christy Mathewson. Some people complain that accomplishments like Beckett's are not the same because modern players get the extra games of the Divisional Series to set or tie these postseason records. I call BS on this one. None of the other pitchers I mentioned above had to face a DH and Brown and Mathewson played when it was a Whites only game. That makes Beckett's accomplishment all the more impressive... I was thinking that if I took all the time I spent listening to Springsteen when I was young and instead used that time training for the decathlon - I might have an Olympic medal by now. But then I hear him sing Backstreets and I deem the time listening to him well spent... Walt Jocketty is out in St. Louis. Scott Miller has a good take on the situation. I know Jocketty helped deliver a World Series last year and I'm on his side on this one but when I think of Walt Jocketty I always think of the trade he made that sent Danny Haren to Oakland for Mark Mulder. That trade has always made me question Jocketty's judgment...

Wednesday, October 03, 2007

Isiah Thomas

When I saw the guilty verdict against Isiah Thomas on TV and Isiah's reaction - I had three thoughts.

First I imagined this conversation between Isiah and James Dolan.

Isiah Thomas: I'm innocent. I'm very innocent.

James Dolan: I'm very innocent? Is that how it works? Hmm? I'm innocent! No we find you guilty. "Oh, no, no, no. No, I'm VERY innocent." "Oh. Well, if you say you are VERY innocent then maybe your boss shouldn't have to pay that $11 and a half million." It's a good thing you got those naked pictures of me Isiah or I would have canned your ass long ago.

Secondly - I imagine that this sexual harassment case may have actually improved Isiah's rep with some people. Of course these are the same people who thought he was gay before this case came up.

Finally - I imagine there has to be some guy who was fired by Cablevision sometime in the past who is now getting legal counsel because I'm sure they did not get the same royal treatment in the face of sexual misconduct allegations that Isiah Thomas did.
Top 5 - Strange Search Results

Every once and a while I mention some of the strange search results which bring some people to this blog. I was prompted to do this once again after seeing someone got to my blog by searching for "Jason Varitek's cock and balls". My mom would be so proud - my blog made the first page for that search. These results are just from the last 100 hits to this site.

1. Jason Varitek's cock and balls
2. Tom Brady balding (5th overall choice)
3. celebrity buttcrack
4. Jesus Boots
5. hot baseball wives
Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Have you seen those Verizon MVP commercials where a guy keeps up with the scores during a wedding / business meeting / funeral? You do realize that this is just the ESPN cell phone offering repackaged by Verizon right? I was hoping that ESPN was going to lose their shirts on that cell phone deal but if they got Verizon to pick up the ball - that means they will probably get out of the debacle without too much bloodletting. Too bad... I'm not happy that CB Bucknor is umpiring in the Red Sox / Angels series. He has no business at all umpiring in the postseason. Bucknor is the worst umpire in baseball by a wide margin... I'm not upset with Tim Wakefield not being on the Red Sox roster for this series. I'm guessing that Wakefield's back is acting up (I think I heard he had a cortisone shot). I'm more upset that Bartolo Colon won't be on the Angels roster. The Red Sox would have had a buffet of hits off this fat bastard. I have to wonder if Colon's elbow issues are due more to picking up a knife and fork more than it is due to throwing a baseball... 12 years ago today - OJ Simpson was found not-guilty of killing his wife Nicole and Ron Goldman. And no - I cannot remember where I was when I heard the verdict... Happy 53rd birthday to Dennis Eckersley. God does the Eck look good for his age. He still looks like he could pitch. He is by far the best in-studio baseball analyst in the business. The Red Sox won't dare lose on the Eck's birthday - will they?

Tuesday, October 02, 2007

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

With the Padres and Rockies playing a 163rd game - I was reminded that in 1978 when the Red Sox went to a playoff - Jim Rice played in every game that season - all 163 of them. Adrian Gonzalez came close to Rice's mark by playing 161 games this season... I figured out who was to blame for the Mets' collapse - Mr. Met. Wally the Green Monster never would have allowed the Red Sox to fall apart like that... If I had a vote for NL MVP - I'd have to give it to Matt Holliday of the Rockies. Holliday was taken in the 7th round of the 1998 draft. In the first round the Rockies took pitcher Matt Roney with the 28th pick, outfielder Choo Freeman with 36th pick and catcher Jeff Winchester with the 40th pick. If I'm the Rockies I'm not sure how I feel about the success of those 3 first rounders... Prediction - if the Phillies go on to win the World Series then the number of people who die in the "celebration" will outnumber the US military deaths in Iraq for October... If I had a vote for NL Manager of the Year - I'd vote for Willie Randolph just to screw with people... The Red Sox having to carry 3 catchers on their playoff roster for the series against the Angels points out how much of an albatross Doug Mirabelli has become. His only skill is being Tim Wakefield's buddy. He's become Robert DiNiro in Bang the Drum Slowly. I understand the flexibility having 3 catchers give you in the late innings but come on - there's a reason no playoff teams normally carry 3 catchers...

Monday, October 01, 2007

Phony Vets for Truth

This "satire" by Scott Ott on the Phony Vets for Truth supporting Harry Reid in his tirade against Rush Limbaugh was pretty funny. However, it reminded me of a true situation that was even funnier than fiction.

In the 2004 election John Kerry's campaign tried to force Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney to accept a letter asking him to condemn the Swift Boat ads. Kerry's group was met by Darrell Crate, the head of the Massachusetts GOP, and a supposed Veterans Group called Veterans for Working Senators. Crate said he'd gladly accept the letter from Kerry's group if Kerry would accept the letter from his. The Veterans for Working Senators had a letter prepared which wanted to know why Kerry was AWOL as a Senator - never showing up for the job but still accepting the full salary. Crate's "phony veterans for truth" ruled the day as Kerry's folks knew that was a subject Kerry would rather not tackle (no show workers like Kerry aren't popular among the working folks known as voters).

I call them phony veterans for truth because there was no record of a group known as Veterans for Working Senators prior to the stunt by Crate or since.

HT - Instapundit
Thoughts from a Long Drive

I had a long drive down from Massachusetts to Piscataway, NJ for some meetings the next few days in Basking Ridge. I thought I'd take the time while I wait for my room service food to arrive to share some of my thoughts from a long drive.

Not sure if you noticed the anniversary but it has now been 25 years since someone tampered with some Tylenol products which resulted in the deaths of 7 people in the Chicago area. Its been 25 years almost to the day and I don't think the killer will ever be found.

The number 7 stuck in my head and I know it sounds trite to compare the death of 7 people with blowing a 7 game lead with just 17 games to go but the mind sometimes works in strange ways (besides if you read some of the articles on the Mets you see words like "disaster", "devastating" and people sending out their sympathy to Mets fans). I was expecting to hear lots of Mets talk on 660 the FAN on the drive but football was dominating the discussion. I put on some music and thought about the Mets in the privacy of my rental Chrysler 300 (I got a free upgrade - thought I'd mention that just in case anyone from accounting reads this).

The people at Tylenol are credited with taking quick action to save the company division. They took the immediate hit of taking all their products off the shelfs and coming out with improved tamper proof products. They are now the #1 brand in their market. If the Mets want to return to #1 in the NL East they too will have to take immediate and maybe drastic action to come back better than ever (hopefully with a choke-proof product). If they fail to do so - then it could be a long time before the Mets sniff first place again.

If I were the owner I'd fire Omar Minaya. Its no secret that I think Minaya is a bad GM. What skill does it take to throw money and extra contract years at a Carlos Beltran or a Pedro Martinez? Of course Minaya won't be fired (but he should be). Willie Randolf will be a good manager and I think Jerry Manuel is a good bench coach for him. However, the first moves have to be to get rid of Rick Peterson as pitching coach and get a professional batting coach.

The next two moves I'd make would be to get rid of Carlos Delgado and Paul LoDuca. It will be easy to get rid of LoDuca since he's a free agent and easy to replace his "productivity" since LoDuca was basically at replacement player levels this year. Delgado will make $16 million next year but for the Mets to be successful they would have to sit him against lefties (.704 OPS this year) and also when he plays at Shea (the guy freaking has just a .680 OPS at Shea this season!). Delgado has to go. I wonder if Toronto would want him?

The Mets also have to decide if Lastings Milledge is ready to be an everyday player. If so then next year they have Carlos Beltran, Moises Alou and Milledge in the outfield. If he's not ready - they have to trade him for either a top pitching prospect or an established #3 starter. With Milledge gone - if Carlos Beltran is willig to move to right for a Torii Hunter or Andruw Jones - then Minaya should open the checkbook. If Betran will be uncomfortable then maybe Bobby Abreu is the fallback. However, will Abreu be a big upgrade over Milledge?

Two things to mention about the drive down. For about 10 miles I was behind this Jaguar in the left hand lane when I noticed that the license plate was XXX-LVR. The inside of the car was dark and with the high head rest it was impossible to tell whether it was a guy or a girl driving. If it was a guy - that's a creepy license plate. I hit some traffic in Bridgeport and lost sight of the Jag so I guess I'll never know.

The other thing to mention is that as I crossed over the George Washington Bridge into New Jersey - I sang "Happy Birthday to You" since the bridge opened on this day in 1931. I know that its a strange thing that I actually knew that fact and would sing the song to a bridge. That's just how I am.
McNabb = Drew Bledsoe?

Donovan McNabb was sacked 12 times last night. Twelve times! Meanwhile Jeff Garcia was not sacked a single time for Tampa Bay yesterday.

A few years ago Bill Belichick faced Drew Bledsoe when Bledsoe was no longer playing for the Patriots and instead was the QB for the Bills. Belichick blitzed the hell out of Bledsoe and made him take lots of sacks and make lots of mistakes. It became a blueprint defense for the rest of the league against Bledsoe who went from being a marquee name in the game to being retired in short duration.

Last night the Giants gave the rest of the league the blueprint for beating the Eagles when they lineup Donovan McNabb behind center. If opposing teams can get just half of the sacks that the Giants got last night - then the Donovan McNabb era in Philadelphia will soon be at an end. The Eagles next three opponents - the Jets, Bears and Vikings all have very good front sevens and it looks like there is a recipe for disaster brewing in Philadelphia. The Eagles don't have very good receivers, McNabb isn't as mobile as he used to be and last night the Eagles offensive line was completely exposed.

Fans will be shouting for AJ Feeley or rookie Kevin Kolb maybe by halftime of the next home game against the Bears.