Lowe = Weaver?

It occurs to me that Derek Lowe is very much like Jeff Weaver of the Dodgers. Even though there is a three year age difference (Lowe is 31 while Weaver is 28) - they have both thrown about 1,000 innings in MLB (Lowe 947 and Weaver 1,001). Both had one very big year that seemed to elevate them above what their numbers seem to say about them. Weaver had some success with a lousy Detroit team - so people figured that he would be even better on a good team. That turned out to be a poor assumption. Lowe had a Cy Young like 2002 where he went 21-8 with a 2.58 ERA and people assumed that even if Lowe wasn't 21 game good every year - he would at least be 17 game good.

Both pitchers have thrown about the same number of walks and struck out about the same number of batters (288 walks and 668 SO for Weaver, 281 walks and 625 SO for Lowe) with similar WHIP's (1.26 for Lowe and 1.36 for Weaver). I grant that Lowe has superior numbers in ERA, ERA+, wins, etc. but it almost seems like a there for the grace of God type deal.

My theory on Lowe is that the great run support he recieved from the Red Sox (especially early in games) allowed him to relax and just throw his sinkerball. Without an early lead or in pressure games - Lowe tends to think too much and lose confidence in his best pitches (sinker and curve). Now he's thinking too much and everyone is wondering about his "fragile psyche".

Every once and a while both pithers will throw a gem seemingly out of nowhere (which makes people think that the lights out version is the true version). Right now Weaver is 3-5 with a 4.60 ERA while Derek Lowe is 3-4 with a 6.02 ERA. Weaver will be paid $15.5 million for this year and next. Most people agree that Weaver's contract is a bad one for the Dodgers to be holding. Derek Lowe will be paid $5 million this year and he wants a $10 million plus per year contract going forward. Would you pay that much for Jeff Weaver? Do you think anyone will pay that much for Derek Lowe?