Jason Varitek

As any Red Sox fan will tell you, Jason Varitek is a free agent at the end of this season. Varitek has Scott Boras as an agent and Boras wants a 4-year $40 million contract for Varitek. That just isn't going to happen.

The Red Sox probably will resign Varitek because he adds the most value to Boston because he knows the staff and is a veteran leader. The question has to be asked though - who else might bid for Varitek's services?

Probably the best way to determine potential bidders is the process of elimination. First - we'll eliminate the teams that already have an all-star level catcher. Second - we'll eliminate the teams that would not have the budget to sign a top tier catcher or have a young catcher that they want to develop.

Teams with catchers equal to or better than Varitek:

Yankees - Jorge Posada (why would they carry two all-star level catchers)
Orioles - Javy Lopez
Detroit - Pudge Rodriguez
Angels - Benji Molina (Angels have a $3 million option for 2005 - why spend more on Varitek?)
Astros - Brad Ausmus (defensive specialist and heart of the team - signed through 2005)
Dodgers - they have Paul LoDuca and plus if Billy Beane didn't like Varitek - do you think Dodger GM Paul DePodesta is going to feel otherwise?
Mets - Mike Piazza (and Phillips and Wilson and... the Mets are set at catcher)
Padres - Ramon Hernandez - who beat out Varitek for the AL All-Star team last year
Phillies - Mike Lieberthal - whose $7.5 million deal per year is the kind of money Varitek should be looking at (Phillies have Lieberthal signed through 2005 with an option for 2006)
Pirates - they are trying to unload Jason Kendall's contract - not sign another catcher
Rockies - they have Charles Johnson who is the same age as Varitek and they owe him $9 million for 2005
Twins - they have Joe Mauer (I know I'm elevating the kid to all-star status a little early but he's that good)

Teams that don't have the budget to sign a top tier catcher or who have young stud cheap catchers they need to stick with:

Oakland - Beane is on record for not liking Varitek
Toronto - they can go young and cheap with Kevin Cash - why go old (33 next year) and expensive with Varitek?
Atlanta - Johnny Estrada is the catcher of the present and future (they need to show that they didn't just give away Kevin Millwood)
Brewers - they aren't spending that sort of money on a catcher
Devil Rays - they aren't spending that sort of money on a catcher
Diamondbacks - they aren't spending that sort of money on a catcher
Expos - they aren't spending that sort of money on a catcher
Indians - they aren't spending that sort of money on a catcher - plus they have young Victor Martinez
Marlins - they have a limited budget and they will have to retain and give raises to Beckett, Burnett, Cabrera, Hee Seop Choi and Dontrelle Willis
Rangers - they have Einar Diaz and need pitching not catching
Reds - they aren't spending big money on a catcher
Royals - they aren't spending big money on a catcher

Potential Suitors for Varitek:

St. Louis - possible but not probable. St. Louis needs to spent their money on retaining Edgar Rentaria and Matt Morris
Cubs - very possible
Giants - Rob Nenn and his $9 million per salary comes off the books and the Giants aren't real happy with AJ Pierzynski. Very possible but the Giants throw their money around like manhole covers.
Seattle - they have a couple of young catchers and aren't big spenders but Varitek makes a certain amount of sense for them (like making up for trading him in the first place)
White Sox - Miguel Olivo is their catcher of the future but they may decide that they need an all-star level catcher. If they can't resign Magglio Ordonez or Estaban Loiaza - then maybe they White Sox try to make a splash with Varitek and Lowe?

So we have narrowed the potential suitors for Jason Varitek to the Red Sox (who don't forget can offer Varitek arbitration), Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Mariners and White Sox. I can see the Red Sox offering a Mike Lieberthal-like 2-year $8 million per deal with an option and I don't see any of the suitors matching or beating that offer. However, I also don't see Boras being convinced that the offer from the Red Sox as being the best the market will bear and thus turning it down. The end result will be Varitek going to arbitration and getting a one-year deal from the Sox.

So let it be written - so le it be done.